Take Profit Capability Calculator
How often do you need to win for this to pay?
Every day is modeled as either a winning day (+win) or a losing day (−loss). The model buys an account, runs the evaluation, then the funded phase, and withdraws everything above the buffer until the account is blown. The math is exact (Markov chain), not a random simulation. Change any number and everything updates.
Inputs
About 5.5 winning days out of every 10, counting account fees and blown accounts. It can sit below the single-day break-even because a blown account only costs you the fee; the trading loss is the firm's.
Where the average day is $0: $2,200 × p = $3,500 × (1 − p).
Pass rate 42.1%, 2.4 accounts to get funded, $6,009 withdrawn per funded account.
One losing day of $3,500 leaves only $1,000 of the $4,500 drawdown. You need 2 winning days to get back to a new high before the next loss. Any loss before that ends the account.
Survive: W · or L W W · Blown: L L · L W L
Net profit per trading day vs. win rate
Includes every account you buy, every failed evaluation, and every blown funded account. Above the zero line the system makes money over time.
Probability and profitability table
"Per account" means per account you buy, averaged over the ones that fail. Withdrawals are after your profit split. The highlighted row is the break-even win rate.
| Win rate | Winning / 10 | Avg day | Pass eval | Accts to fund | Cost to fund | Days to fund | 1st payout | Withdrawn / funded | Funded life | Net / acct | Net / day | ≈ / mo | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.0% | 4.0 | −$1,220 | 2.6% | 38.3 | $8,271 | 136 | 11.6% | $321 | 4 | −$208 | −$57 | −$1,194 | Loses money |
| 45.0% | 4.5 | −$935 | 4.9% | 20.3 | $4,395 | 79 | 16.9% | $543 | 4 | −$189 | −$46 | −$970 | Loses money |
| 50.0% | 5.0 | −$650 | 8.6% | 11.7 | $2,526 | 50 | 23.5% | $894 | 5 | −$140 | −$30 | −$628 | Loses money |
| 55.0% | 5.5 | −$365 | 13.9% | 7.2 | $1,554 | 33 | 31.2% | $1,445 | 5 | −$15 | −$3 | −$59 | Loses money |
| 55.4% break-even | 5.5 | −$343 | 14.4% | 6.9 | $1,499 | 33 | 31.9% | $1,499 | 5 | $0 | $0 | $0 | Profitable |
| 60.0% | 6.0 | −$80 | 21.3% | 4.7 | $1,016 | 24 | 40.1% | $2,314 | 6 | $276 | $43 | $905 | Profitable |
| 65.0% | 6.5 | $205 | 30.7% | 3.3 | $703 | 18 | 49.9% | $3,706 | 8 | $923 | $118 | $2,484 | Profitable |
| 70.0% | 7.0 | $490 | 42.1% | 2.4 | $513 | 14 | 60.0% | $6,009 | 10 | $2,315 | $235 | $4,926 | Profitable |
| 75.0% | 7.5 | $775 | 54.9% | 1.8 | $394 | 11 | 70.1% | $10,021 | 13 | $5,285 | $402 | $8,444 | Profitable |
| 80.0% | 8.0 | $1,060 | 68.1% | 1.5 | $317 | 9 | 79.6% | $17,651 | 19 | $11,803 | $625 | $13,122 | Profitable |
| 85.0% | 8.5 | $1,345 | 80.5% | 1.2 | $268 | 7 | 87.9% | $34,455 | 31 | $27,521 | $897 | $18,831 | Profitable |
| 90.0% | 9.0 | $1,630 | 90.8% | 1.1 | $238 | 6 | 94.4% | $82,947 | 63 | $75,061 | $1,198 | $25,168 | Profitable |
Assumptions
- Each day is independent: win with probability p, lose with probability 1 − p. Real results vary in size; this uses your two fixed day outcomes.
- Evaluation: end-of-day trailing drawdown from the highest balance. The account fails if the balance falls to peak − drawdown.
- Funded (PRO): the drawdown trails until it reaches the starting balance, then locks there. You keep the buffer in the account and withdraw every dollar above it, so a later loss can blow the account after payouts.
- Profit split and activation fee are editable. Check your current TakeProfitTrader plan for the exact values and for any daily loss limit or consistency rule, which this model does not include.
- This is a math exercise about your stated numbers, not financial advice.
TakeProfitTrader 150K account model · Not affiliated with TakeProfitTrader. See also our Risk Disclosure.